NOW LAUNCHED: London’s West End Retail Turnover Forecasting

Turnover in London's West End is projected to reach £8.6 billion in 2022

The new report also projects that the District will recover to its historic annual turnover of £10 billion within the next two years, and will supersede pre-pandemic levels by 14 per cent – or a further £1.4 billion – by 2025.

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London’s West End is set for a speedy recovery according to new data released today. Global property consultancy, Colliers, is forecasting that the area is on track to achieve turnover of £8.6 billion within the next 12 months.

The new report, commissioned by New West End Company – which represents 600 retail, restaurant, hotel and property owners across Bond St, Oxford St, Regent St  & Mayfair – also projects that the District will recover to its historic annual turnover of £10 billion within the next two years, and will supersede pre-pandemic levels by 14 per cent – or a further £1.4 billion – by 2025.

Last year’s turnover figures show that spending across the West End was up nearly a third (30%) from 2020, but was still only 46 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. Promisingly, domestic generated sales are recovering more quickly and are expected to exceed 2019’s figures within the next 12 months.

"Our data has highlighted that areas with greater levels of domestic trade have, and will continue, to recover quickest with UK generated sales to hit pre-pandemic levels by 2023. Areas with much greater reliance on tourists and international visitors will take longer to return. Overall, we have forecast West End performance to be back to pre-pandemic levels by 2024.”

Paddy Gamble, Co-Head of Retail Strategy at Colliers

Despite UK visitors making a confident return to the high street, retail and hospitality businesses are facing challenges caused by the continued absence of high spending international travellers. This lack of overseas shoppers is most apparent across Regent Street, Bond Street and Mayfair – which traditionally rely on tourism – with 2021 sales reaching on average only a third (33%) of those achieved in 2019.

As a result, NWEC is calling on the Government for more support to help entice overseas holidaymakers back to the UK, a group that historically accounts for half of the West End’s annual turnover and contributes so much to the wider economy.

Top of the asks is a simplification of the UK’s visitor visa system, which has fallen behind those offered by competing destinations such as Paris and Milan, and a reconsideration of the abolition of tax-free shopping.  Since its abolition last year, other major world cities have benefited from a 20 per cent price advantage over the UK, pushing it even further down the travel wish list for high-net-worth tourists.

“Nearly two years on from the start of the pandemic and the road ahead for the West End looks promising with the long-anticipated opening of the £19bn Elizabeth Line set to turbo charge our recovery. Whilst it is heartening to see domestic customers filling our high streets with optimism once again and travel restrictions gradually disappearing, we can speed up the nation’s recovery greatly by incentivising high spending tourists to return to our shores.”

Jace Tyrrell, Chief Executive of New West End Company

As well as changes to visas and taxes, NWEC is asking for an extension to Sunday trading hours. International shoppers are often disappointed to find that stores are forced to close by 6pm on a Sunday, limiting potential spending. NWEC believes that it is crucial that retail businesses are given the opportunity to cater to weekend city break shoppers, with its own research estimating that – by removing this barrier from designated international centres such as the West End – an additional £250 million worth of sales would be generated annually at no extra cost.

In October last year, NWEC announced a collective planned £5 billion capital investment into the London’s West End over the next five years to diversify the district’s offering. The funding will not only help the district bounce back from the pandemic, but will also help it evolve into the destination of choice for the modern customer.

In recent months, a wide variety of businesses have also chosen to make the West End their home such as Outernet, Superdry and the Ivy Asia. Further exciting arrivals are due over the next 24 months, including an Ikea store at the former Topshop flagship site on Oxford Street, Gymshark on Regent Street and a new flagship Hugh Boss store adjacent to Selfridges.